NATO leaders hoping to display cohesion at an upcoming summit in Turkey

LONDON — NATO's deputy commander told The Associated Press that he wants a summit in Turkey to spur member countries to spend more on defense, reaffirm support for Ukraine and underline the unity of the alliance.

Air Chief Marshal John Stringer, NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, spoke to AP in London less than two weeks before the crucial Ankara summit on July 7-8 tests the cohesion of the 77-year-old alliance.

U.S. President Donald Trump has sent conflicting signals over America's force posture in Europe and has threatened to leave the alliance. He has also unnerved European leaders with his push to annex Greenland and his flattery of NATO adversary Russian President Vladimir Putin. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth lambasted NATO allies last week for not allowing use of their bases to attack Iran, as he announced a surprise six-month review of American forces in Europe.

Meanwhile, in the U.K. — the country which holds the position of NATO deputy supreme allied commander — government ministers quit recently over what they said were military spending plans that fail to keep Britain safe.

Summits are “highly political events and they are a demonstration of any organization’s unity,” said Stringer, a senior British air force officer. It would be strange if there weren't moments of turbulence over decades of NATO expanding, he said.

“Are we in one of those moments at the moment? Yes, we are,” Stringer said during a military conference in London where AP also interviewed other senior European military officials about their hopes — and fears — for the summit.

NATO's European members step up on defense

Trump has long urged European allies to take more responsibility for their own defense, and with the notable exception of Spain they have largely heeded with an unprecedented effort to spend more on their armed forces.

Russia is increasingly threatening Europe, so allies should boost their own militaries while helping Ukraine degrade Russia's fighting power, said Maj. Gen. Indrek Sirel, a commander in Estonia's armed forces.

“Europe as a whole has a lot to do in order to be credible against Russia,” said Brig. Gen. Jyri Raitasalo of Finland, which shares NATO's longest border with Russia.

Stringer said European nations are investing to generate a “really credible force,” citing as an example how some countries are quadrupling production of 155 mm artillery shells. The summit will discuss ramping up production in ways the alliance has not had to do in decades, Stringer said.

European military chiefs wait for clarity on US plans

The outcome of Hegseth's six-month review of forces will determine how fast Europeans must take responsibility for their own security. The U.S. military in Europe had said earlier in June that Washington would be withdrawing some capabilities from Europe and expecting other allies to fill the gaps.

The Trump administration says that troop reductions in Europe have long been planned and coordinated with allies, but Sirel said it's still not clear how U.S. forces will be positioned in the Baltic states. That includes some U.S.-led deterrence of Russia on NATO's eastern flank.

Sirel said he was “confident” he could rely on a U.S. presence, though the Estonian military is finding ways to react to sudden changes.

Stringer said it would be difficult to replace U.S. long-range strike and surveillance capabilities, but he was confident allies could bridge the gap — not always with the same equipment, but by mixing a “cocktail” of capabilities.

Only the U.S. operates B1 and B52 bomber aircraft, but Stringer said that, in theory, a loss of their capabilities might be offset by firing missiles from a variety of other systems including from the ground, sea and smaller aircraft.

Changing plans suddenly is not good for defense

NATO allies were bewildered in May when Trump said he would send 5,000 U.S. troops to Poland just weeks after ordering the same number pulled from Europe.

Such sudden changes are challenging because military planning requires long-term strategy, said Raitasalo, the Finnish military's logistics chief. “If you change your mind, or change your plan, every week or every month or even every year, you will not get very good results,” he said.

Raitasalo said the allies need to make clear pledges of capabilities, rather than just promise spending.

Sweden's army chief, Maj. Gen. Jonny Lindfors, said a good outcome from the summit would be “a common picture of how to realign when it comes to deterrence and defense."

Lindfors said he would like at least an outline — if not a “clear vision” — on how defense burdens should shift so that he knows what “NATO 3.0 is starting to look like.”

Britain needs to commit to defense

British Defense Secretary John Healey resigned earlier this month, along with another minister, saying the government was unable and unwilling to commit the resources Britain needs to “defend the country at this time of rising threats.”

At last year's NATO summit, members agreed to spend 3.5% of their gross domestic product on core defense. The U.K. committed to meeting that target by 2035, but Healey said the proposed defense investment plan would see spending rise to just 2.68% of GDP in 2030.

The new defense secretary, Dan Jarvis, has said Britain will keep its commitments, and the British government has committed to publishing the spending plan.

By the summit, NATO expects nations to have a “credible path” to 3.5%, and the U.K. is “as beholden to that as anybody else," Stringer said.

He said the U.K. cannot presume that “thought leadership” in NATO is enough, and that it must match its “forces and resources."

NATO's credibility is at stake

At last year's summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte kept Trump on board by telling him he would achieve "BIG" success at getting allies to spend more on defense.

“It’s a tricky question,” said Lindfors, the Swedish commander, when asked if a key goal for this summit is to avoid a situation where the U.S. president slams his allies.

Stringer said that at this year’s summit it’s important to display “cohesion and unity” among the alliance’s 32 members but also to have “honest” conversations and deliver “credible” plans.

Raitasalo of Finland said the meeting must go beyond traditional “communiques, road maps and action plans" and demonstrate deterrence through deeds. He said if NATO members don't step up and translate promises into action, the “credibility” of the alliance is at stake.