BOSTON — As experts continue to warn, we might see a COVID-19 spike a few weeks following Thanksgiving - but that data will tell us a lot about what to expect for Christmas and the New Year.
Unfortunately, so far the numbers have not been looking good as we are breaking records in the wrong direction. On Thursday, Massachusetts broke the record for the most cases reported in a single day, clocking in at 6,447 new cases of the novel coronavirus.
In the same way we’re seeing a spike in cases we’ve also seen a spike in travel now that we are in the holiday season. So, are the numbers related? And how safe is it to fly?
A recent case study file from New Zealand health officials confirmed someone who got a negative test within 48 hours, got on a plane and infected at least 4 people.
“The traveler was asymptomatic, tested negative, and was contagious,” said Newton-Wellesley Dr. Michael Misialek.
Misialek says some of the responsibility falls on us, the patients getting tested, to find out exactly what type of test we are taking.
“The questions to ask when taking the COVID test include:
- Who’s administering the test?
- What type of test is it?
- Is it the PCR test or is it an antigen test?
“Try to get a PCR test if possible,” said Misialek.
The reason being, he says, is that a PCR test is more sensitive, being that it detects smaller amounts of the virus - even among asymptomatic patients.
The antigen test, however, is best when a patient is symptomatic.
Bottom line, he says, don’t put as much weight on the antigen tests.
“Particularly, if you’re not symptomatic,” said Misialek. “The antigen test has a higher risk of being a false result either a false negative or false positive.”
The other bottom line is that health experts are advising against traveling unless it’s an emergency. But that’s not realistic as data from November has showed.
“I know Christmas everyone wants to go and meet with aunt so-and-so and uncle whoever and grandma and grandpa and I get all that,” said Bryan Del Monte of the Aviation Agency. “COVID is like Russian Roulette. Five out of six times the gun goes, ‘Click,’ [and] nothing bad happens, but that one time is pretty brutal.”
Del Monte has been studying these travel trends all year and says now that flights are going back up, Christmas may be rough.
“My Facebook feed is filled with all these people. ‘Hey, we’re here, we’re there,’” said Del Monte. “Nobody’s wearing masks. There’s enough statistical knowledge that when you have that many people traveling, there is a predictable percentage who are COVID-19-contagious and unaware.”
In the New Zealand case study, it was an 18-hour flight and researchers say that makes things worse.
“Patients walking about, the movement, taking off masks for eating meals,” said Dr. Misialek. “The shorter the flight, the safer.
There is one way to ensure absolute safety, he says - don’t travel. iBut, if you are going to travel, the more tests and quarantines you do both before and after the flight the better.
This new study seems to invalidate the Department of Defense study we reported on in October that declared coronavirus transmission risk on planes “low” and suggested a contagious person would need to sit next to a passenger for at least 54 hours to infect them.
While it’s still true, that the risk on a plane is “low,” it can still happen. There is the high turnover of air, plus a cold & dry setting that’s not a particularly good conditions for viruses, but researchers say the act of traveling is antithetical to slowing the spread.
Even if it’s not directly on the airplane, you have the ride to the airport, wait at the airport, go through screening, grabbing a bite to eat, going in the bathroom, etc... It’s everything together they say that’s causing the increase in cases.
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