Will weekend nor’easter hit Massachusetts? See the possible tracks, impacts

The Boston 25 Weather team is continuing to track a developing nor’easter that could bring more snow, strong wind gusts, and coastal flooding.

Meteorologist Shiri Spear said Thursday morning that the winter storm is expected to develop off the southeastern coast of the United States on Saturday and track north, potentially impacting New England on Sunday.

It’s still too early to pin down the exact track or impacts, including projected snowfall totals, because as of Thursday morning, the GFS and Euro weather models were drastically different.

“Here’s why we don’t have a snow map yet. Two models, same Sunday timeframe. One has less than 1″ of snow in Boston, and the other suggests about a foot,“ Spear wrote in a post on X. ”This storm hasn’t even formed yet. A lot of details will come into focus over the next 24-48 hours."

Right now, Cape Cod and the Islands look to be most at risk for heavy snow.

Boston and points along the coast have a moderate chance of snow. The risk of snow in central and parts of western Massachusetts appears low.

“The best chance for six inches or more of snow is going to sit down across the Cape. Beyond that, it’s quite iffy on how far it gets,” Spear said in her latest forecast.

Spear added, “It could get into southeastern Mass., up to Boston, or up to the North Shore, but closer to 495 and inland, we have a pretty low chance for those higher snow totals, and there could end up being a pretty sharp cutoff to the snow as well.”

If the storm heads north on a closer track, New England would be in for major and widespread impacts. A distant track would be mostly a miss, according to Spear.

“It doesn’t look like a mostly miss. Right now, it looks like something in the middle, which would give us some impacts,” Spear said. “It does look like the further inland you go, the less impact you’re going to see from this one.”

So, to recap, here’s what we know right now about the storm: There is a potential for more than 6 inches of snow, it will be breezy, especially along the coast, in addition to astronomical high tides.

What remains unclear: How widespread will the snow be, the exact strength of the wind, and the extent of coastal flooding and beach erosion?

For the latest forecast updates, visit the Boston 25 Weather page and download the Boston 25 Weather app.

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