An already above-average Atlantic hurricane season is only expected to get busier, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
Record hot ocean waters and a late-arriving El Nino are causing NOAA scientists to double the chances east coasters look back on 2023 as a busier than normal hurricane season.
Forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, up from a 30% chance in May. The likelihood of near-normal activity has also shrunk to a 25% chance, down from May’s 40% chance. All in all, it means those on the Atlantic Coast now only have a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
NOAA is now forecasting between 14 to 21 named storms, ballooning from May’s initial forecast of 12 to 17. A typical year has 14 named storms. Of those named storms, NOAA believes 6-11 will eventually be upgraded to hurricanes. Two of those storms could became “major” hurricanes that blast wins of 111mph or greater.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
Although El Nino typically helps create conditions that would lessen tropical storm activity during hurricane season, forecasters say the limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon also helped shape the updated seasonal forecast, NOAA says.
Hurricane season lasts six months from June to November 30.
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