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With NFL Draft's top 3 picks feeling locked in, the fireworks could start with Patriots at No. 4

While Patriots celebrate new additions, glaring holes remain on offensive line and at wide receiver Foxborough, MA - March 13: New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel watches a press conference where the team introduced four free agent signings. (Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) (Boston Globe/Boston Globe via Getty Images)
(Boston Globe/Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Less than 24 hours from the NFL Draft, the top of the board feels like it's finally settling in. Now we turn to the potential drama.

Despite some exploratory trade calls to the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns as we press up against draft night, both are now expected to stick and pick at their respective positions — with Miami quarterback Cam Ward going No. 1 overall to Tennessee and Colorado wideout/cornerback Travis Hunter landing in Cleveland. And now I believe you can add the New York Giants to the "settled" list, too, with Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter coming off at that No. 3 spot. We'll get to the rationale for those picks in a moment, but not before addressing where the NFL Draft drama could ramp up on Thursday: With the New England Patriots sitting at No. 4.

As it stands, the odds favor the Patriots taking LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell at No. 4. It's a severe position of need for the Patriots, and despite Campbell lacking the ideal arm length and overall wingspan of historically successful left tackles, the reality is he does have a solid floor with some positional flexibility. Essentially, if Campbell struggles at left tackle, the Patriots still have the option to flip him to the right side or push him inside to guard. While that's not the outcome you really want with the fourth overall pick, that's just a reality of this draft class, and New England will have to roll with it.

At least, that's how it looks. Whether or not that's how it plays out on Thursday is the subject to some debate and intrigue. And it's because there's still the possibility that arguably the second-most dynamic player in this draft — slotted behind only Hunter — is expected to still be on the board at fourth overall: Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. While there hasn't been any indication he's in play for the Patriots to take him, there has been considerable buzz in the last 24 hours that Jeanty is a favorite for the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 5. The only question is whether another team inside the top 10, possibly the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6 or the New Orleans Saints at No. 9, covets Jeanty enough to motivate a move ahead of the Jaguars. This is what accounts for the intrigue at the No. 4 and No. 5 spots, creating some mystery heading into Thursday evening.

If I had to call it now, I’d lean toward the Patriots staying put at No. 4 and doing the practical thing — which is taking Campbell and being satisfied that you believe he can be a high-level guard, if not a high-level tackle. While you could argue in favor of the Patriots simply selecting Jeanty themselves and justifying it as a best-player-available move, it just feels very rich for a Mike Vrabel-coached team to take a running back fourth overall. Especially with the pressing need to improve the offensive line and protect Drake Maye … not to mention the overall depth of the running back class opening other options in later rounds. Campbell very much feels like a Vrabel pick at No. 4, but that doesn’t preclude New England from trading back a few spots and taking him further down in the top 10.

I believe all those options will be on the table right to the moment New England is on the clock. So if you’re tuning in late, make sure you arrive before the Patriots pick if you’re looking for where the drama could start.

Why the top 3 picks appear safe

As for the top three picks being settled, the Titans did get calls about the No. 1 overall pick, but my understanding is nothing ever came close to materializing. The Giants did make a run at this pick, and they were aggressive enough that as recently as mid-March, Cam Ward believed New York was moving up to get him. But Ward's process through the last few months was about as clean as you can get. He did well in interviews and workouts, while also showcasing the traits to be a franchise-leading voice from the quarterback spot. All of that, combined with the coaching staff really wanting to move forward from Will Levis, helped make Ward an easy pick.

In terms of the Browns, I think two factors have locked them into Hunter. First, his floor and ceiling are higher than any other player in this draft. If he crashes out at wideout, he has the cornerback spot as a fallback. If he crashes out as a cornerback, he can pivot full time to wideout. Frankly, I couldn't find anyone in the league who thought he has a chance of crashing out at both positions. If anything, the consensus opinion is he can be a high-caliber player at either spot — it's just a matter of choice. And his Everest-ian ceiling is that he might truly be a Shohei Ohtani type of unicorn and end up being a great player in the NFL on offense and defense. It's never been done before on a full-time basis, but there's at least some percentage chance that Hunter does the unfathomable and continues to star on offense and defense at the next level. For now, I think Browns general manager Andrew Berry sticks to the assessment he's made publicly, which is that he views Hunter as a wideout first but will be open to him playing cornerback as well. It will be fascinating to see how those logistics work.

The Giants have been a little more interesting in terms of the intrigue lasting longer than I would have figured. Into Wednesday morning, I still thought there was a chance that something funky could happen at the third overall pick and the Giants. Only because Carter isn't an absolutely spotless evaluation. He suffered a shoulder injury in the College Football Playoffs that forced him to shut down his expected workouts leading up to the draft, and doctors discovered a stress reaction in his right foot that was shown to be healing as expected during a medical recheck earlier this month. There's also been some nitpicking feelings about whether he has the frame to add additional bulk at the NFL level, which could help him avoid future injuries. As one evaluator put it to Yahoo Sports, Carter has a "race car" body type that can sometimes break down at the next level. I recalled hearing the same thing about wideout Ricky Pearsall last year, and almost immediately after arriving to training camp last season, he was dealing with a hamstring and shoulder issue. Bottom line, highly tuned speed players with very little fat on their bodies can get banged up pretty easily in the NFL. I don't think Carter will be that, but it certainly crossed the minds of some evaluators.

Despite all of this, every signal right now is that the Giants will take Carter at No. 3, basically locking in the same top three picks and players that we have long expected would go at those spots. Yes, the Giants will be stacking another edge player on a depth chart that already has two in Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. But that could be remedied via a trade of Thibodeaux, who will have his fifth-year option picked up, giving an acquiring team the solace that he’s got two years left on his rookie deal. Even if that doesn’t happen, there are ways to work out getting Carter onto the field alongside Burns and Thibodeaux. At the end of the day, that’s a champagne problem that doesn’t necessitate trading out of the No. 3 spot in a draft where the talent shelf has a wicked drop-off in the other areas of need for New York. Carter is the best player on the board at No. 3 and he plays a premium position. That’s really all we need to know.

How the rest of this will shake out is anyone’s guess. With talent evaluations and value assessments all over the board in the top 70 to 80 players, this realistically might be one of the most difficult drafts in recent memory to accurately predict. That should fuel some interesting runs on players in unexpected places and pour rocket fuel into trades as teams can’t really be sure who will make it to them at certain points.

For a league that loves to picture itself as the best reality show in existence, this draft was made for it.

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