BOSTON — The National Weather Service on Thursday released its 2023-2024 outlook for New England, and it’s looking like the Boston area could be in for a trend similar to last year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the NWS, is calling for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States due to El Nino being in place ahead of the arrival of winter.
The outlook said that northern New England is among the regions across America with the greatest odds of seeing warmer-than-average conditions, along with Alaska and the Pacific Northwest.
The rest of New England has a 40-50 percent chance of having a warmer-than-average winter, the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal temperature outlook map showed.
When it comes to winter precipitation, the Climate Prediction Center gave parts of southern New England a 33 to 40 percent probability of “leaning above” normal precipitation for the season.
The rest of New England was given “equal chances” for below, near, or above-average precipitation this winter.
Earlier this winter, AccuWeather published its winter forecast for the 2023-2024 season, which calls for a “much different” season and “heft snowfall” across New England than last year.
“The window for snow-producing nor’easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston,” AccuWeather’s outlook said.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac published its 2023-24 winter outlook, calling for a mild, but snowy winter. The rival Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a return of traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions.
When those publications shared their outlooks, Boston 25 Meteorologist Shiri Spear cautioned New Englanders that the predictions shouldn’t be “read as gospel.”
“Since we have far fewer tools to piece together a forecast months away, the public should understand that long-range forecasting is a challenging science. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center specializes in these long-range forecasts using special computer models, heavily based on large-scale and global weather patterns,” Spear said in a statement. “Smaller scale regional and local weather patterns, that also happen in a shorter time frame, are difficult to account for in the long-range forecasts and have a much bigger impact on how the season plays out day by day.”
Spear added, “The CPC’s forecast for December, January, and February three-month forecast (winter) calls for slightly warmer and wetter conditions compared to normal. It’s very helpful guidance that we refer to for a “heads up” but isn’t gospel.”
Winter officially begins on Dec. 21, 2023.
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