Win and in: Patriots one win away from trip to Super Bowl after win vs. Texans

FOXBORO, Mass. — After a topsy-turvy, often sloppy game against the Texans, it’s the Patriots who will travel to Denver with a chance to go to the Super Bowl on the line.

It felt like old times in Foxboro after a 28-16 Patriots win in the AFC’s Divisional round. The Patriots wore out the Texans in a snowy slog of a game. The more than 64,000 fans in attendance sang The Outfield’s “Your Love” in unison, like it was 2014 all over again. It was a raucous send-off for the home team, who will now prepare to play on the road against the Broncos this Sunday. A win would send them to Santa Clara to play in Super Bowl LX against either the Seahawks or the Rams.

The Texans’ defense came into Foxboro as advertised, and at many times made things difficult, sacking Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and forcing him to fumble the ball four times. Other than Kayshon Boutte’s impressive one-handed touchdown snag and a few other plays, it was again the Patriots’ defense that delivered the win.

It’s as though the team has taken on a completely new identity since the playoffs began. All during the regular season, the Patriots’ offense was the source of their identity. But for a second week in a row, it’s the defense that has shined. They’ve sacked the opposing quarterback a combined nine times in two playoff games and have allowed just one touchdown.

Texans quarterback CJ Stroud at times looked broken, turning the ball over five times. The Patriots’ defense held Houston to just 48 rushing yards on 22 attempts. A duct-taped Texans offensive line didn’t help their cause. Starting running back Woody Marks amassed just 17 yards on 14 carries.

Christian Gonzalez is playing like a guy who likely will become the highest-paid corner in the league in the offseason. He led the team with nine tackles and had a pass deflection. Fellow corner Carlton Davis had a big game with two interceptions.

In hindsight, the game was over following Boutte’s spectacular one-handed touchdown that put the Patriots up by two scores with 12 minutes left in the game. After that, the Texans went three-and-out, only taking a minute off the clock. The Patriots made them pay by putting together a six-minute drive, running the ball on seven of the 10 plays on the drive.

A sack on third down by Khyiris Tonga with under five minutes on the clock sealed the Texans fate. Stroud was sacked two other times in the game.

The Patriots’ offense kept Houston in the game. Drive after drive, the Patriots’ defense would make a stop or force a turnover, but the offense failed to capitalize. Drake Maye had perhaps his worst day of the season. The offense converted just three of 14 third downs. He did enough to lead them to 21 points, but they left a lot of points on the field.

Maye has done a lot of things right during the season, a season he’ll likely finish 2nd in MVP voting. But the still-very-young quarterback needs to work on his pocket presence. He’s proven he can escape when it’s cluttered and make plays with his feet. It’s when he stays too long and the walls close in when things get ugly. It’s been a problem all season for Maye - getting the ball swatted out of his hand after he didn’t feel or see an incoming rusher.

It could be worse. You could be the Denver Broncos, who will be forced to turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham for the AFC Championship. Starting quarterback Bo Nix, who was taken just 9 picks after Drake Maye in 2024, broke his ankle in the closing moments of their win over the Bills on Saturday. We won’t get Maye/Nix, but I don’t think the Patriots will complain. Stidham, who was drafted by the Patriots, hasn’t attempted a pass in an NFL game since January 7th, 2024. That’ll be 748 days on Sunday.

Surely the Patriots are licking their chops. A trip to the Super Bowl is in their crosshairs. It’d be the franchise’s 12 appearances, tacking onto their record of 11. Four teams are second with eight appearances. January 2019 was the last AFC title game for the Patriots - a dramatic win on the road against a young Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Their most recent title game defeat came in 2016 against Peyton Manning.

It certainly feels like old times - the crowd, the snow, the winning football. But it specifically feels like 2001. The Patriots are a team coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons, now with a new coach and his young second-year quarterback, making a run for the Super Bowl. Sound familiar?

In the 2001 playoffs, the Patriots beat the visiting Raiders in a blizzard, later dubbed the “Snow Bowl,” or perhaps better known as the “Tuck Rule” game. Then the Patriots went on the road to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship and waxed the Steelers, clinching a spot in the Super Bowl where they upset the heavily favored Rams for the first championship in team history.

24 years later, these Patriots will be on the road for the AFC Championship game with their second-year quarterback, new head coach, and a chance to play in that lone February game.

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