For Patriots fans: Confidence is OK — dismissing Broncos is not

DENVER — As we head into Championship Sunday, it’s important to remember not to put the horse before the cart.

Contrary to popular belief, the Patriots still in fact need to win this weekend to advance to the Super Bowl. The injury to Broncos quarterback Bo Nix seems to have thrust fans and media into skipping right to -- “Would you rather play the Rams or the Seahawks in the Super Bowl?”

The mere mention of the Super Bowl should make Patriots and Broncos fans feel gross. To those Patriots fans already mapping out Super Bowl plans, remember that the all-powerful pie to the face is the worst feeling in all of sports fandom: pointing and laughing at the opponent before the game starts, dismissing them, and then your team loses.

No one is saying that the quarterback isn’t the most important player on the field in football. But some of the commentary this week makes it sound like every player on the Broncos’ 53-man roster is Jarrett Stidham.

We get it. Stidham is not Joe Montana. He’s not even Matt Cassel. He’s a backup quarterback who’s only started four games in seven seasons. But this is the NFL - the league that’s championed the ideology that any team can win on any given Sunday.

Every Patriots fan this week should be taking a page from the now-dusty Book-of-Belichick: speak highly of the opponent, no matter how obvious it might seem that they are not up to snuff.

The former head coach routinely hailed a specific part of a team, even if that part as a whole was a complete calamity. Who could forget the monologues on the importance of the long snapper?

Stidham aside, the Broncos’ defense should intimidate Patriots fans. This is a unit that hit Bills quarterback Josh Allen 10 times last weekend. You thought Houston’s pass rush was menacing? Denver generated more sacks this season.

Unless the left side of the Patriots’ offensive line suddenly becomes ironclad, there’s a good chance Sunday looks similar to the Divisional round against Houston. They’ll be under fire from some talent rushers.

Whether it’s a lingering injury, the growing pains of a rookie, or simply the reality of facing the league’s top pass rushers, left tackle Will Campbell has really struggled in recent weeks. First up he had to handle future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack. Then last week it was Will Anderson Jr., who ranked only behind Myles Garrett this season. Speaking of, Garrett had five sacks (in one game) against New England this year.

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s bad habit of putting the ball on the ground when the pocket collapses will get better in time, but if the Patriots have any hope of moving on and convincing people they can win the Super Bowl, he’ll need to clean it up quickly. The quarterback has fumbled six times in these playoff games. He’s been sacked 10 times.

Make no mistake about it - the Patriots need to win on Sunday. This is a team that’s heard the “soft schedule” narrative all season. Critics hoped New England would lose to the Chargers so they could call them a pack of frauds who couldn’t win a playoff game. They hoped the Patriots would fold to a very good Texans defense, proving Maye and company hadn’t faced a tough challenge. Now, critics are hoping these Patriots will choke to a backup quarterback with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

It’s easy to look past what might seem like a weak opponent. We’ve all done it. The Patriots play the Jets twice a year. But this isn’t the regular season, and the Jets aren’t taking the field on Sunday. It’s not a 1 p.m. game in October with the CBS D-team on the call. It’s a game in late January with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo, and it’s for the AFC Championship.

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