Sports

Can Patriots still pass receiving test without Gordon?

MIAMI, FL - Julian Edelman of the New England Patriots celebrates a first down in the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on December 9, 2018 in Miami, Fla.

With the departure of Josh Gordon from the 2018 Patriots, New England (9-5) faces even more question marks at the wide receiver position.

At the beginning of the year, the pass-catcher questions were at their highest since arguably the 2013 season, which featured the likes of then-rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson.

In the summer, the Patriots had lost Danny Amendola – one of Brady’s most trusted receivers in crunch time – were set to be without Julian Edelman for four games due to suspension and had let go of an injured Malcolm Mitchell.

Related: Tom Brady on Patriots losing Josh Gordon: 'There wasn't much reaction'

Training camp saw a slew of potential wideouts come and go before the end of August. Kenny Britt, Eric Decker and Jordan Matthews all wore the pads during the early days of the season, but quickly were taking I-95 out of Foxboro before the Pats played a single down of regular season football.

Then, on September 17, New England snagged Gordon from the Cleveland Browns for a conditional fifth-round pick. The deep threat played 11 games for New England before stepping away from the team citing mental health reasons. Gordon was later suspended that same day for violating the terms of his reinstatement from the NFL.

Now with Gordon gone, the Patriots receiving corps have gotten even thinner. So, who still remains for the Patriots pass-catchers? And, better yet, how can they replace the production that Gordon (40 Rec., 720 Yds., 3 TDs) gave them for nearly three-quarters of the season?

Julian Edelman

Edelman has been the recipient of criticism this season due to his repeated appearances on the injury report and the uncharacteristic drops that he’s had this year.

By the numbers, Edelman actually isn’t having nearly as much of a down year as you’d expect from the rhetoric flying around him. He’s only played 10 games this season as opposed to the 14 New England has, due to his four-game suspension at the beginning of the year.

But since returning, his numbers show he’s been effective.

Two years ago, Edelman played in all 16 regular season games as he and the Patriots captured their fifth Lombardi Trophy over the Atlanta Falcons. That year, the former college quarterback had 98 catches on 159 targets, gained 1106 yards and scored three touchdowns.

While Edelman will only play 12 regular season games this year, at most, we can project his numbers for a full 16-game season based on his current pace – giving us an accurate comparison to 2016.

If he kept up his current rate, Edelman would end the season with 101 catches on 147 attempts – we’ll round to the nearest whole number on these. He’d also have earned 1138 yards and have scored six times.

So, what does it mean that Edelman’s 16-game pace this season is actually better than that of his 2016 season?

Well for one it means that the biggest area of concern for Edelman is his health. A fully healthy Edelman – who is probably more rested than his fellow receivers because of the suspension – could be a vital part of the passing equation in the postseason, especially this year.

Related: LIVE UPDATES: Patriots lead early as they look to clinch AFC East against Bills

Rob Gronkowski

I know that Gronk is a tight end, but he’s just as important – if not more – to the passing game as any receiver on the depth chart. At the beginning of the year, the production of Gronk was seen as something that would be integral to the Patriots offense – especially before Gordon’s arrival.

Gronk had a great performance against the Texans in Week One, as well as a late-season flash of his old dominance against Miami with eight receptions, 107 yards and a touchdown. However, besides those two contests and some late-game catches against Kansas City, Gronk has not looked like the Rob Gronkowski of old.

He hasn’t broken 100 yards outside of against Miami and Houston, and he’s found the end zone just three times all year. Gordon’s absence likely doesn’t bode well for Gronk either.

With Gordon gone, defenses will likely pay more attention to Gronkowski, who already has had difficulty shedding the coverage he’s had during stretches of this season.

If you’re the Patriots, you hope Gronkowski will have some semblance of a return to form, but if not, it’s worth wondering if Josh McDaniels will try to use the tight end as a decoy to open up the passing game in other areas.

Chris Hogan

Some of the most commonly asked questions Patriots fans have had throughout the season have had to do with Hogan’s production – or lack thereof.

Two years ago, Hogan had a breakout season for the Patriots. However, last year the wide receiver played in just nine games and registered a career low in catch percentage (57.6).

And while the former Buffalo Bill has appeared in every game this season, Hogan’s impact seems more 2017 than 2016. But, from a numbers perspective, his catches and targets aren’t that far off from his best season.

>>>MORE: Josh Gordon stepping away from Patriots, indefinitely suspended by NFL

In 2016, Hogan had 38 grabs on 58 targets. At his current rate, he’s on pace for 33 catches on 50 throws. The true separator between a career year for Hogan and his 2018 season is his yards. He had 680 receiving yards in the last Super Bowl winning season for New England; this year he’s on pace for 535.

The silver lining here is that Hogan’s reliability as far as catching the ball goes should still be the same, with his catch numbers being close to those in 2016. While he hasn’t been able to gain as many yards after the catch, Hogan could be a good go-to for when the Patriots just need a completion to keep a drive going – something that they have had issues with in their losses.

Phillip Dorsett

Dorsett has appeared in every game this season, but he hasn’t been targeted in the last three and he hasn’t had more than three pass attempts thrown his way since September. And despite Doresett’s lack of playing time this season, Gordon’s departure could create a great opportunity for the former Colts’ receiver.

There isn’t much film on the receiver from this season – he’s been targeted just 32 times on the year. With the season winding down and games remaining against the sub-.500 Bills (5-9) and Jets (4-10), don’t be surprised if McDaniels starts to incorporate Dorsett more and more into the offense, particularly in the playoffs.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson came to New England as a kick returner in the offseason, but has since morphed into a multi-use player by Belichick and Co. While the quick-footed Patterson does lineup on the goal line during kickoffs, he also plays two positions on offense.

While he’s listed as a receiver on the depth chart, Patterson has also been used as a running back. He’s caught 20 passes in 14 games thus far for 244 receiving yards; on the ground he’s amassed 162 yards on 38 attempts – career highs in both rushing categories.

His ability to play multiple positions could pay dividends in the passing game.

>>>MORE: Rob Gronkowski limited in practice ahead of Patriots game against Bills

New England has been its most successful when they incorporate their running backs effectively into the offense. They have tallied more than 100 rushing yards in seven of their nine wins and have lost five of the seven times they have failed to reach the centennial mark.

With Patterson playing both receiver and running back, he can be used as a good pass-catcher out of the backfield, especially if James White continues to see a reduced roll in the final few games. White has tallied fewer than 35 receiving yards per game in all but one contest since Week Nine. 
Patterson has 124 receiving yards in the last three games.

Gordon’s loss is nothing to overlook, but it does not mean that New England’s season is over. The Patriots will need to recapture the long-held mantra of “next man up” that helped them be so strong for nearly the last two decades.

And while plenty of questions remain about this receiving corps, the biggest uncertainty is if they – along with the rest of their team – can find success in the face of adversity.