Road to top seed in AFC still open for Pats after Chiefs loss on TNF

With the Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) defeating the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) last night on a last-second two-point conversion, the battle for the AFC's top seed remains wide open. The Chiefs are still in the best position after the narrow loss, owning a one-game lead in the division tiebreaker over the Chargers. And despite the Patriots (9-4) collapse on the last play in Miami on Sunday, New England still remains in contention for home field leading up to Super Bowl LIII.

So, before we get into the numerous scenarios that lay before the Patriots in their last three games, let’s take a brief moment to refresh our memories on the NFL's tiebreaker rules. We’ll visit the division tiebreakers later, as the Patriots likely won’t be even with Miami (7-6) unless they suffer a near-epic collapse. For the division winners, the NFL applies the Wild Card tiebreakers to determine home-field advantage.

Those Wild Card tiebreakers, according to the NFL's website are as follows:

     If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.

     If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

• Head-to-head, if applicable.
• Conference record.
• Best win percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory.
• Strength of schedule.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss.

• Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to step two. The original seeding within a division after being decided by the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent tiebreakers that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
• Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one team has defeated each of the others or if one team has lost to each of the others.)
• Best win percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best win percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory

^NOTE: If two teams remain tied after third or more teams are eliminated, tiebreaker reverts to step one of applicable (division or wild card) two-team format.

The only teams that are still in contention for the top seed are the Chiefs, the Chargers, the Patriots and the Houston Texans (9-4).

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-6) are the two teams in contention for the AFC North crown, and the best the division-leading Steelers can finish is 10-5-1. If the Chiefs and Chargers were to lose out, they would both finish at 11-5, so the AFC North champion will not be able to have home field throughout the playoffs.

While a win in Miami last week would’ve given the Patriots a chance to pull even with the Chiefs in the conference standings, the loss didn't totally eliminate them from having the road to the Super Bowl go through Foxboro. If the Patriots win at Pittsburgh this weekend, they’ll be just one game behind Kansas City with two games to go.

If the Chiefs and Patriots end the regular season with the same record, New England will be awarded the higher seed by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Chiefs back in October. The Chiefs have two games remaining on the year: on the road against Seattle (8-5) and at home against Oakland (3-10) in the final week. New England has a pair of AFC East opponents, the Jets (4-9) and Bills (4-9), at home after Pittsburgh.

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If the Patriots, the Chiefs and the Chargers or Texans all finish the year with the same record, then the tiebreaker rules really come into effect. LA hosts the Ravens next week before finishing the year on the road at Denver.

Scenario: Patriots, Chiefs and Chargers all finish at 11-5:

Because the Chiefs and Chargers both play in the AFC West, NFL tiebreaker rules dictate that the division tiebreaker must be applied to the teams that share a division first, even though the Patriots would also be tied with the same record (See the first rule under 3-team tiebreakers above).

We'll just list the two-team tiebreakers for divisions, as it’s unlikely we’ll see three squads knotted up at the end of the year from the same division:

• Head-to-head
• Divisional record.
• Best win percentage in common games.
• Conference record.
• Strength of victory
• Strength of schedule.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

If all three teams end the year at 11-5, the Chiefs would win the AFC West because of their divisional record. Currently, Kansas City is 4-1 against teams in their division, while LA is 3-2. Both would need to lose out to finish at 11-5 – meaning that KC would be 4-2 against the AFC West at the end of the season, while the Chargers would be 3-3.

So, with the Chiefs winning the first tiebreaker against the Chargers, they would then go to a tiebreaker with the 11-5 Patriots. New England's 43-40 victory over Kansas City back in October means that New England would be the top seed.

Scenario: Patriots, Chiefs and Chargers all finish at 12-4:

Again, the Patriots benefit by only having to go to a tiebreaker with one of the two AFC West teams. 
Currently, both the Chiefs and the Chargers have one game remaining against divisional opponents.

With Kansas City having a one-game lead in that first tiebreaker, all the Chiefs would need to clinch the division in the event of a tie is a win over the Raiders in Week 17, or for the Chargers to lose at Denver in Week 17. If either or both were to happen, the Chiefs would win the tiebreaker against the Chargers, but then lose the tiebreaker against New England because of head-to-head.

However, if the Chiefs were to finish the year 12-4, but lose to Oakland while the Chargers finish 12-4 after beating Denver, things would get complicated.

Both teams would be 4-2 in their division, both would have the same common record – which is record against teams that they both played during the year – at 10-2, and both would have a conference record of 9-3. The tiebreaker for the division crown would be strength of victory, which is the combined winning percentages of opponents beaten.

Naturally, these numbers cannot be calculated until the season is over; however, ESPN's NFL Playoff Machine runs through the numbers and scenarios to determine who would be which seed in certain situations. Currently, if both teams finished at 12-4, the model predicts that the Chargers would win the AFC West title.

That means that the Patriots and Chargers would go to a tiebreaker. As they have not played each other this year, and with both having a 9-3 conference record and a 4-1 record against common opponents, the tie breaker would also come down to strength of victory. ESPN's model predicts that the Chargers would get the top seed.*

Scenario: Patriots and Texans finish at 12-4, Chiefs and Chargers finish at 11-5:

This one is simple. New England beat the Texans, 27-20, in Week One, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston. Patriots would get the top seed, and the Chiefs would win the AFC West because of their divisional record, as mentioned above.

Scenario: Patriots, Texans and Chiefs all finish at 12-4, Chargers finish at 11-5:

According to the multi-team Wild Card tiebreaker rules, the first difference maker for teams in different divisions is head-to-head sweep. Even though the Texans and Chiefs did not face each other, the Patriots beat both of them, meaning they would get the nod for the top seed in this scenario. Houston and Kansas City would then move into the two-team Wild Card tiebreakers.

The Chargers would be locked into the fifth seed, while the Chiefs and Texans would have their subsequent seedings dependent on end of season performance, as the two have no head-to-head matchups this season.

The Texans would have to win out to go 12-4, meaning their conference record would move to 9-3. Houston has three games remaining: at the Jets (4-9), at the Eagles (6-7) and home against the Jaguars (4-9).

The Chiefs have one game remaining against an AFC opponent, and one against an NFC opponent, with their current conference record standing at 9-2. To get to 12-4, they’d have to lose one of their remaining games. If they were to drop their game against Oakland and beat Seattle on the road, the would be tied with Houston with a 9-3 conference record. The tiebreaker would then go to strength of victory. ESPN's model has the Texans claiming the higher seed in this scenario.

However, if the Chiefs were to go 12-4 by beating the Raiders and losing to the Seahawks, then KC would become the second seed because of a 10-2 conference record.

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Scenario: Patriots, Texans, and Chargers all finish at 12-4, Chiefs finish at 11-5:

None of the teams played both of the others, so head-to-head sweep can’t be applied. All would be 9-3 in conference games, so that’s also out. The three teams also don’t meet the minimum requirement of four common games between them, so that means this tiebreaker is also determined by strength of victory. According to ESPN’s model, the Texans would be the top seed, followed by the Chargers and Patriots.

Scenario: Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers and Texans all finish at 12-4:

So this one seems like it's complicated, but it actually is pretty simple. The Chargers and Chiefs go to their own tiebreaker to determine the division winner. Much like the second scenario listed, if the Chiefs beat Oakland or LA loses to Denver, then the Chiefs win the AFC West. The subsequent three-way tiebreaker between New England, Houston and Kansas City would go to the Patriots because of head-to-head sweep.

The Texans and Chiefs tiebreaker that would follow would go to Kansas City due to a 10-2 conference record, as mentioned earlier.

However, where the waters get muddied is if the Chiefs lose to Oakland and LA beats Denver. Similar to the second scenario, the Chargers would win the AFC West due to the strength of victory tiebreaker.

Then the Chargers, Patriots and Texans would all go to a tiebreaker, which would also have to be determined by strength of victory, as explained in the previous scenario. That would mean that Houston would get the top seed, followed by LA and then the Patriots, according to ESPN.

Scenario: Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers and Texans all finish at 11-5:

This one seems exactly like the last scenario, but it's actually more advantageous to New England. If both the Chargers and the Chiefs drop their remaining contests, Kansas City would win the tiebreaker because of a better divisional record, 4-2 over 3-3.

As mentioned earlier, the Patriots would then earn the top seed over KC and Houston because of head-to-head sweep.

The Texans and Chiefs would have to go to the two-team Wild Card tiebreaker, with conference record serving as the deciding factor. Losing out would mean the Chiefs would have a 9-3 record in the AFC at the end of the year. The Texans, currently at 9-4, have to lose one more game for this scenario to play out. If they were to lose one of their conference games against either the Jets or the Jaguars, their AFC record would be 8-4, giving the Chiefs the second seed and a first-round bye.

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If Houston were to win both of those matchups and drop their NFC game against Philadelphia, they’d be tied with Kansas City in the conference record tiebreaker. Again, the decider would be strength of victory, with ESPN’s model predicting Houston edging out Kansas City.

Obviously, there are plenty of ways the rest of this season can finish. The easiest – and probably the most likely – way seedings can pan out is if the Chiefs win out and claim the top seed. But the Patriots still have a chance to finish with the first overall seed – and are still in good positioning for the first-round bye.

Just be careful what you wish for when watching Kansas City and LA over the next few weeks. And please, don't ask me what happens if there’s a tie.

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* The Patriots and Chargers can only finish tied for the one seed without a third team if they are 12-4, the Chiefs are 11-5 and the Texans are at best 11-5. If that were to happen then the tiebreaker would be strength of victory, as it is in the second model where the Patriots, Chiefs and Chargers all finish 12-4. The Patriots would get the second seed, according to ESPN.

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